The ICU investment group has updated its forecast for the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar for the end of 2026 and 2027. Analysts expect the hryvnia to keep weakening moderately.

This is stated in ICU’s macroeconomic review for October. The group calls the current period the most difficult for the economy since 2022.

What the rate will be

According to ICU’s forecast, the dollar will cost 45.8 hryvnias at the end of 2026. At the end of 2027 the rate will be slightly above 49 hryvnias per dollar.

We expect the trend towards a moderate devaluation of the hryvnia to continue.

ICU investment groupmacroeconomic review, October 2026

Analysts believe that concessional external financing, despite significant delays, should be enough to cover the external account deficit until the end of 2027. This means the National Bank will have enough room to control the currency market and the exchange rate.

What is putting pressure on the hryvnia

The external account deficit excluding international aid keeps growing. Exports have fallen because sea routes are blocked, while imports are rising fast as the government buys more weapons and components with the defence part of the EU loan for Ukraine.

Inflation already exceeded 10% in September and, according to ICU, will peak at 12% in winter. It will return to single digits only in the third quarter of 2027.

Given the new risks, analysts do not rule out that the National Bank will raise the key rate by another 0.5 percentage points, to 16.5%, and keep it there until mid-2027.

As a reminder, for 15 October the National Bank set the dollar rate at 44.98 hryvnias, 10 kopiykas lower than the day before.

Nota bene

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